Jeff Chang, the Growth Tech Lead at Pinterest, shares his framework for identifying and evaluating product growth opportunities.
Start with a hypothesis about what you think will happen and why. A good hypothesis should include the size of the opportunity as measured by the number of customers that will be impacted. Jeff believes that most hypotheses are focused on increasing intent or decreasing friction
Consider how much time it will take to invest in the project. This includes not only the time to build it but also any ongoing maintenance costs. The returns you expect to generate from your hypothesis will be weighed against the investment cost to deliver it.
Take into account past experiments run by your team or other companies in your industry. If you are starting from zero you will have to rely mostly on industry examples, but over time you can learn from your past results.
Consider if the proposed change results in a good user experience. Optimizing for a particularly metric can lead to extreme behavior and in some cases poor experiences. Jeff advises using quality metrics, such as long-term retention or value generating actions to try to objectively measure the quality of experience.